Poisson Distribution
Models score/event distributions to generate probabilities for totals, correct scores, and player props.
How it works
Inputs
- Expected average (lambda)
- Over/Under threshold
- Home/Away expected goals
Results
- Probability distribution
- Over/Under probabilities
- Correct score matrix
- Fair odds
When to use
Use to price totals markets, correct score bets, and player props based on statistical averages.
Example
Team averages 2.5 goals per game — calculate P(Over 2.5) = 47.1%, P(Under 2.5) = 52.9%.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Poisson distribution help with betting?
Poisson distribution models the probability of a given number of events (goals, points, tries) occurring in a fixed period. It lets you calculate fair odds for totals, correct scores, and player prop markets.
Is Poisson accurate for all sports?
Poisson works best for low-scoring sports like soccer and hockey. For higher-scoring sports (AFL, NBA), it's still useful but may need adjustments for variance.
Need live odds data?
HyperOdds automatically finds the best odds across all major Australian bookmakers in real-time.